The Global Fertility Crisis Is Getting Worse
Richard Hanania publishes an analysis arguing that the global fertility decline is accelerating and that conventional policy interventions have failed to reverse the trend. Drawing on demographic data from multiple countries, the piece contends that falling birth rates represent one of the most consequential challenges facing modern societies, with implications for economic growth, social welfare systems, and geopolitical power.
The article examines the structural factors driving fertility decline, including rising costs of child-rearing, shifting cultural norms around family formation, increased educational attainment among women, and the growing appeal of alternative life paths. Hanania argues that these forces are deeply embedded in modern life and are unlikely to be overcome by the modest pronatalist policies that governments have attempted so far.
The piece also considers the long-term consequences of sustained low fertility, including aging populations, shrinking workforces, and the potential for significant shifts in global economic and political power as different regions experience demographic change at different rates.
The article examines the structural factors driving fertility decline, including rising costs of child-rearing, shifting cultural norms around family formation, increased educational attainment among women, and the growing appeal of alternative life paths. Hanania argues that these forces are deeply embedded in modern life and are unlikely to be overcome by the modest pronatalist policies that governments have attempted so far.
The piece also considers the long-term consequences of sustained low fertility, including aging populations, shrinking workforces, and the potential for significant shifts in global economic and political power as different regions experience demographic change at different rates.